The second CFP rankings came out last night and everyone has something to say about it. But, let’s be honest, as far as UGA is concerned, it doesn’t really matter at all. The margin for error evaporated when they lost to USCjr. They have got to win out and beat LSU in Atlanta on the second weekend in December to have a chance at a playoff run.
Full stop.
I saw someone ask the other day if UGA had not lost to USCjr where might they be. The chances are good they would probably #3 behind LSU and Ohio State but with some wiggle room to drop a game in Atlanta or somewhere else.
We just got to the somewhere else first…
Regardless, it’s “a win and get in” scenario at #4 or at #5, where Alabama currently sits.
Everything I’m about to say is meaningless because of what I just said. But, if you want to keep reading, here is my case for why they got it right by putting UGA at #4.
Georgia has played and won against two current top 25 teams. On the other hand, Alabama has lost to the only ranked team it played this year.
Yes, it was to the current #1 ranked team. The problem with the loss is there is not another win Alabama can point to that’s impressive. It was the same argument used against UGA for the playoff last year. Georgia was 1-2 against ranked teams at the end of the year (The one being UF which is just sweet, sweet goodness). However, when UGA lost to LSU in Baton Rouge, it lost the ability to point back to a quality win.
The same is true here for Alabama. And, what’s more, the CFP committee, by putting UGA ahead of Alabama and putting Clemson at #5 in week 1 have made their intentions clear… if all things are equal, comparing quality wins is more important than ‘quality’ losses.
And yes, UGA has a terrible loss at home to a dreadful South Carolina team.
BUT, if we are going to compare, then let’s compare…
Fortunately for us, Alabama has also played USCjr.
Here’s how they fared…
|
Alabama |
UGA |
|
|
First Downs |
25 |
30 |
|
First Downs Allowed |
31 |
16 |
|
Total Yards |
571 |
468 |
|
Total Yards Allowed |
459 |
297 |
|
Rushing Yards |
76 |
173 |
|
Rushing Yard Allowed |
135 |
142 |
|
Turnovers |
0 |
4 |
|
Points |
47 |
17 |
|
Points Allowed |
23 |
20 |
There’s one glaring stat on this sheet that makes all the difference… turnovers. Other than that, UGA outplayed Alabama against USCjr.
Of course, championship teams don’t make mistakes and UGA did that day. They lost and it was ugly.
However, statistically speaking, turnovers have not been a problem for UGA. They had 4 total before SC, and four at SC, and none since then. If you could statistically point out that UGA had a turnover problem, then you could say losing to SC is who they are. If, however, we say UGA does not have a turnover problem and perhaps had a bad day at SC, then you say UGA losing was a fluke.
Again, championship-caliber teams do not play as UGA did against SC. Fortunately for us, the championship wasn’t that weekend and it’s not this one either. Teams get better.
But, perhaps, the strongest case for UGA over Alabama is this: Georgia can control what happens to itself from this point forward while Alabama has to wait for someone else to lose.
But again, none of this really matters if UGA doesn’t win out.
Other Odds and Ends
Georgia’s offense has been struggling to get off the ground pretty much the whole season. Everyone likes to say “next man up” when you lose someone on your team. UGA lost most of it’s offensive production from last year to the NFL draft and to dismissals. Perhaps we should have been saying all along, “Coach the next man up.” The Georgia receivers are getting better every week. Cager has been a surprise and Pickens is so close.
To me, it feels like the offense is an engine struggling to fire and at any moment it could turn over. Then it’s lights out.
Even with all of the offensive woes, the 2019 squad is only 4 points per game off the pace of the 2018 team. Similarly, this year we are averaging 5.6 YPP to last years 5.9 YPP. Even though production on offense is down, this UGA team has the largest margin of victory per game than any of Kirby’s previous seasons (even the season we went to the national championship). We are beating opponents by an average of 23.5 points.
Previewing Auburn
I’m not much of an analyst, but I do know a little. Here’s what I know about Auburn…
They like to run misdirection and go up-tempo.
Bo Nix is not a good passer (the game-winning touchdown at Oregon was a terrible throw and should have been intercepted).
Auburn will try to run it on us. The Georgia Defense is giving up 74 rushing yards per game.
Auburn’s defensive front is supposedly the team’s strongest unit which is also what they said about “sack leading UF.” We saw how that went.
Overall, we match up strength for strength except in the passing game and if both teams will more than likely be making it difficult to run, you have to think Fromm over Nix.
I like UGA in this one by ten or more.
SEEEEEEYAAA!